A sample of existing pupil data has been used to simulate the potential savings to be achieved with a future policy change.
Please note:
- The model is based on current pupils, this is only an indicator; these pupils will not be impacted by any policy change whilst completing their education at their current school unless they have a change of address which affects eligibility.
- Future parental behaviour in terms of admissions preferences and modes of transport cannot be reliably predicted and so the model has been produced to estimate the impact on the transport budget and on schools on a like for like basis.
- The secondary school data in Table D of the analysis by constituency area document provides an overview of pupils accessing transport in line with the policy. Due to the complex nature of admissions to secondary schools particularly in urban areas of the county (Harrogate, Scarborough and Selby) relating to catchment areas and parental preferences for places this data cannot be used to assume the full impact of the policy change. In addition to this, due to oversubscription, the presence of selective schools and the UTC, the nearest secondary school ‘with places available’ may not be the actual nearest.
Method of data analysis used in the model
- data was downloaded on a given day in January 2024 but can vary from day to day / term to term
- this data includes pupils accessing mainstream schools only
- pupils are listed in Synergy (school based management information system) and pupil addresses from that system were used to calculate nearest and catchment schools
- a sample of over 7500 children who on the day were eligible from free home to school transport were used in the model
- individual daily rates were based on contract daily rate divided by number of seats
- bus and rail pass daily rate was based on annual value divided by 190 school days
- allowances daily rate was based on the average value used
Impact on primary schools
Of the 296 mainstream primary schools, the model indicates that 161 schools show no impact of the policy change. This is either because there is no incidence of North Yorkshire Council transport to that school or that it is probable there would be no impact under the policy.
Some indicative school level analysis was undertaken which showed that a similar number of schools could see either a positive or negative impact. The positive net impact would be in terms of more pupils being eligible to access free transport. The negative would relate to a reduced number of pupils being eligible for free travel. Most schools were predicted to see an impact of 5% or less of their pupil roll.
For the 54 small schools with fewer than 50 pupils on roll, there are 23 schools that could have increased eligibility and 14 schools that could see a decrease based on like for like eligibility. 17 schools could be unaffected.
For the 88 schools with 50-99 pupils on roll, there are 25 schools that could have increased eligibility and 23 schools that could see a decrease based on like for like eligibility. 40 schools could be unaffected.
Further summary analysis of the impact on primary schools is shown in the constituency area tables.
Impact on secondary schools
All 43 schools involve some provision for home to school transport, and for many schools this includes a mix of free and ‘paid for’ seats.
It is estimated that 20 schools may see increased eligibility based on numbers on roll and 18 will see a decrease, five schools are likely to be unaffected. Please refer to the caveats about the secondary data above.
A number of schools arrange their own transport in order to support admissions and attendance, they are likely to do so even if a policy change is agreed.
Further summary analysis of the impact on secondary schools is shown in the constituency area tables.
Impact on expenditure
The model assumes that some parental preferences for schools may change as a result of transport eligibility
In the scenario that there is very little change to admissions and therefore the policy change reaches its maximum impact, the value is estimated to be approximately £2.8m on a like for like basis. This assumes that admissions preferences remain similar to today’s preferences despite the policy change. In the scenario that every child attends their nearest school – and applies for transport assistance, the model assumes approximately 20% impact on the budget. This would lead to a minimum estimated saving of £560k over the seven year period.
Therefore, it is estimated that a policy change would result in an annual savings impact between this range (£560k to £2.8m) at the end of the seven year period.
Estimates 100% savings impact should existing patterns of attendance be maintained (table contains rounding)
| Savings year | Secondary | Primary | Pupil numbers | Daily saving | Multiplied annual saving | Cumulative pupil numbers | Multiplied cumulative daily saving | Multiplied cumulative annual saving |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Year 7 | Reception | 324 | £3,049 | £579,448 | 324 | £3,049 | £579,448 |
| 2 | Year 8 | Year 1 | 268 | £2,384 | £453,089 | 592 | £5,434 | £1,032,538 |
| 3 | Year 9 | Year 2 | 294 | £2,722 | £517,205 | 886 | £8,156 | £1,549,743 |
| 4 | Year 10 | Year 3 | 300 | £2,804 | £532,841 | 1186 | £10,960 | £2,082,584 |
| 5 | Year 11 | Year 4 | 316 | £2,887 | £548,706 | 1502 | £13,848 | £2,631,291 |
| 6 | Year 5 | 43 | £450 | £85,521 | 1545 | £14,299 | £2,716,813 | |
| 7 | Year 6 | 49 | £557 | £105,850 | 1594 | £14,856 | £2,822,663 |
Estimates 20% savings impact whereby a greater proportion of children attend their nearest school (table contains rounding)
| Savings year | Secondary | Primary | Pupil numbers | Daily saving | Multiplied daily saving | Multiplied annual saving | Cumulative pupil numbers | Multiplied cumulative daily saving | Multiplied cumulative annual saving |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Year 7 | Reception | 324 | £3,049 | £609 | £115,889 | 65 | £609 | £115,889 |
| 2 | Year 8 | Year 1 | 268 | £2,384 | £476 | £90,617 | 118 | £1,086 | £206,507 |
| 3 | Year 9 | Year 2 | 294 | £2,722 | £544 | £103,441 | 177 | £1,631 | £309,948 |
| 4 | Year 10 | Year 3 | 300 | £2,804 | £560 | £106,568 | 237 | £2,192 | £416,516 |
| 5 | Year 11 | Year 4 | 316 | £2,887 | £577 | £109,741 | 300 | £2,769 | £526,258 |
| 6 | Year 5 | 43 | £450 | £90 | £17,104 | 309 | £2,859 | £543,362 | |
| 7 | Year 6 | 49 | £557 | £111 | £21,170 | 319 | £2,971 | £564,532 |
1. Analysis of current transport users by Area Constituency (January 2024)
Primary Schools – Table A
| Constituency area | Total number of primary pupils (October 2023) | Number of North Yorkshire Council transport users in receipt of free transport | % of total pupils in receipt of free transport | No. of ineligible pupils paying for North Yorkshire Council transport |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate and Knaresborough | 7054 | 77 | 1.1 | <5 |
| Richmond | 6829 | 517 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Scarborough and Whitby | 6358 | 127 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Selby and Ainsty | 8033 | 328 | 4.1 | <5 |
| Skipton and Ripon | 6620 | 443 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Thirsk and Malton | 6381 | 715 | 11.2 | <10 |
| Total | 41275 | 2207 | 5.3 | <20 |
Secondary Schools – Table B
| Constituency area | Total number of primary pupils (October 2023) | Number of North Yorkshire Council transport users in receipt of free transport | % of total pupils in receipt of free transport | No. of ineligible pupils paying for North Yorkshire Council transport |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate and Knaresborough | 7115 | 1170 | 16.4 | 55 |
| Richmond | 5077 | 1477 | 29.1 | 98 |
| Scarborough and Whitby | 4534 | 732 | 16.1 | 26 |
| Selby and Ainsty | 4995 | 1293 | 25.9 | 39 |
| Skipton and Ripon | 5987 | 1270 | 21.2 | 69 |
| Thirsk and Malton | 4915 | 1637 | 33.3 | 37 |
| Total | 32623 | 7579 | 23.2 | 324 |
Analysis of the potential impact of the proposed change to the main eligibility criterion
These are estimates of future impact drawn on a like for like basis from significant sample of existing users of North Yorkshire Council school transport.
Table C
Estimated numbers of future children who (based on current patterns of eligible travellers and on distance grounds) could attend a catchment school which is not their nearest school:
| Constituency area | Primary | Secondary |
|---|---|---|
| Harrogate and Knaresborough | 10-15 | 460-470 |
| Richmond | 90-95 | 145-155 |
| Scarborough and Whitby | 15-20 | 120-130 |
| Selby and Ainsty | 20-25 | 250-260 |
| Skipton and Ripon | 40-45 | 210-220 |
| Thirsk and Malton | 100-105 | 90-100 |
| Total | Approx 300 | Approx 1300 |
Table D
Estimated numbers of future children who (based on current patterns of eligible travellers and on distance grounds) could attend their nearest school, instead of their catchment school, and who could be eligible for free travel on distance grounds:
| Constituency area | Primary | Secondary |
|---|---|---|
| Harrogate and Knaresborough | 5-10 | 295-305 |
| Richmond | 80-85 | 165-175 |
| Scarborough and Whitby | 30-35 | 100-110 |
| Selby and Ainsty | 25-30 | 285-295 |
| Skipton and Ripon | 45-50 | 175-185 |
| Thirsk and Malton | 50-55 | 45-55 |
| Total | Approx 250 | Approx 1100 |
The above figures are estimates for illustration purposes.
There is an additional consideration for the secondary figures in that some secondary schools in parts of North Yorkshire have significant oversubscription and the figures provided do not take account of the fact that the nearest school may not have places available.